Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co.,Ltd (300407.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.16 - $15.78$10.30
Multi-Stage$5.06 - $5.53$5.29
Blended Fair Value$7.79
Current Price$10.62
Upside-26.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS71.36%14.78%0.170.150.060.110.060.010.100.080.050.04
YoY Growth--13.49%153.66%-45.08%90.79%389.86%-88.97%34.17%49.01%33.33%-8.66%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.96%0.70%1.26%0.77%0.13%1.02%0.63%0.30%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.2712.057.23
Cash Retained (M)93.4593.4593.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.27-12.05-7.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.1881.4086.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)264.50264.50264.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.16$10.30$15.78
Upside / Downside-32.59%-2.99%48.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.37102.64109.31116.41123.98132.04136.00
Payout Ratio3.03%20.43%37.82%55.21%72.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.9220.9741.3464.2890.02118.84125.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.9219.0919.27
Year 2 PV (M)33.6534.2934.94
Year 3 PV (M)47.2148.5649.94
Year 4 PV (M)59.6561.9464.30
Year 5 PV (M)71.0474.4878.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,106.691,160.141,215.64
Equity Value (M)1,337.161,398.511,462.14
Shares Outstanding (M)264.50264.50264.50
Fair Value$5.06$5.29$5.53
Upside / Downside-52.40%-50.21%-47.95%

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