Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nanjing Baose Co., Ltd. (300402.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.91 - $10.90$7.08
Multi-Stage$3.47 - $3.79$3.63
Blended Fair Value$5.35
Current Price$18.12
Upside-70.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.83%3.42%0.130.190.180.450.030.090.070.060.080.12
YoY Growth---30.45%9.15%-60.71%1,646.20%-70.69%22.23%27.72%-32.47%-32.53%28.94%
Dividend Yield--0.72%1.14%0.92%2.19%0.18%1.11%0.66%0.46%0.34%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.077.544.52
Cash Retained (M)56.7856.7856.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.07-7.54-4.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.7149.2452.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)243.67243.67243.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.91$7.08$10.90
Upside / Downside-72.92%-60.93%-39.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.3364.2568.4272.8777.6182.6585.13
Payout Ratio5.88%22.70%39.53%56.35%73.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.5514.5927.0541.0656.7974.3978.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13.1613.2913.41
Year 2 PV (M)22.0322.4522.87
Year 3 PV (M)30.1931.0631.94
Year 4 PV (M)37.6839.1340.62
Year 5 PV (M)44.5546.7048.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)697.69731.39766.38
Equity Value (M)845.30884.01924.16
Shares Outstanding (M)243.67243.67243.67
Fair Value$3.47$3.63$3.79
Upside / Downside-80.86%-79.98%-79.07%

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