Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Garden Bio-chemical High-tech Co., Ltd. (300401.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.72 - $105.71$99.06
Multi-Stage$28.78 - $31.56$30.14
Blended Fair Value$64.60
Current Price$14.13
Upside357.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.58%82.11%0.120.180.220.120.020.110.050.020.000.02
YoY Growth---34.62%-16.01%86.01%554.76%-83.83%116.42%217.42%233.33%-70.00%5,298.81%
Dividend Yield--0.86%1.82%1.60%0.80%0.14%0.69%0.35%0.08%0.04%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.3637.7322.64
Cash Retained (M)215.64215.64215.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.36-37.73-22.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.28177.91193.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.81567.81567.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate4.93%4.93%4.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.72$99.06$105.71
Upside / Downside534.96%601.07%648.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.80321.42342.31364.56388.26413.50425.90
Payout Ratio28.55%40.84%53.13%65.42%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.16131.27181.87238.50301.72372.15393.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.93%4.93%4.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)123.93125.10126.28
Year 2 PV (M)162.10165.19168.31
Year 3 PV (M)200.69206.45212.32
Year 4 PV (M)239.70248.92258.40
Year 5 PV (M)279.12292.61306.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,336.6616,077.4316,846.55
Equity Value (M)16,342.2117,115.7017,918.46
Shares Outstanding (M)567.81567.81567.81
Fair Value$28.78$30.14$31.56
Upside / Downside103.69%113.33%123.33%

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