Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Absen Optoelectronic Co.,Ltd. (300389.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.32 - $99.34$93.10
Multi-Stage$61.86 - $67.89$64.82
Blended Fair Value$78.96
Current Price$16.74
Upside371.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.09%13.20%0.300.301.460.000.000.130.070.110.090.11
YoY Growth--0.00%-79.69%312,808.78%114,427.33%-100.00%94.07%-39.53%25.82%-15.60%26.00%
Dividend Yield--2.70%1.68%10.23%0.00%0.00%1.56%0.40%0.74%0.46%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)184.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.8723.0513.83
Cash Retained (M)129.00129.00129.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.87-23.05-13.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.13105.96115.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)369.09369.09369.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate0.75%0.75%0.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.32$93.10$99.34
Upside / Downside403.69%456.14%493.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)184.37196.35209.11222.71237.18252.60260.18
Payout Ratio30.03%42.02%54.02%66.01%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.3782.51112.96147.01185.02227.34240.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.75%0.75%0.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.1381.9082.67
Year 2 PV (M)109.21111.29113.39
Year 3 PV (M)139.76143.77147.86
Year 4 PV (M)172.95179.60186.44
Year 5 PV (M)208.96219.05229.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,120.3723,188.7924,298.11
Equity Value (M)22,832.3823,924.4125,058.00
Shares Outstanding (M)369.09369.09369.09
Fair Value$61.86$64.82$67.89
Upside / Downside269.54%287.21%305.56%

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