Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Acrel Co.,Ltd. (300286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.03 - $185.00$173.38
Multi-Stage$106.93 - $117.35$112.04
Blended Fair Value$142.71
Current Price$24.72
Upside477.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.19%11.80%0.390.200.190.200.190.190.070.140.130.13
YoY Growth--100.00%1.46%-1.54%4.23%-2.63%192.93%-52.30%8.01%-0.40%0.11%
Dividend Yield--1.72%0.91%0.49%0.73%1.17%1.77%0.59%1.16%0.77%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.7225.4515.27
Cash Retained (M)128.36128.36128.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.72-25.45-15.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.64102.91113.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)218.87218.87218.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate2.30%2.30%2.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$157.03$173.38$185.00
Upside / Downside535.22%601.36%648.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.60216.83230.93245.94261.92278.95287.32
Payout Ratio36.95%47.56%58.17%68.78%79.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.24103.13134.33169.16207.94251.05265.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.30%2.30%2.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)99.87100.81101.76
Year 2 PV (M)125.96128.36130.78
Year 3 PV (M)153.60158.01162.50
Year 4 PV (M)182.84189.87197.10
Year 5 PV (M)213.75224.08234.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,628.2923,721.2524,856.03
Equity Value (M)23,404.3124,522.3725,682.97
Shares Outstanding (M)218.87218.87218.87
Fair Value$106.93$112.04$117.35
Upside / Downside332.58%353.25%374.70%

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