Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Group Co., Ltd. (300278.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.10 - $0.18$0.14
Multi-Stage$0.11 - $0.12$0.11
Blended Fair Value$0.12
Current Price$5.48
Upside-97.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-56.05%-20.43%0.000.000.000.010.050.070.050.060.030.02
YoY Growth--8.31%262.19%-97.20%-80.45%-23.68%22.47%-6.16%81.86%106.23%43.99%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.03%0.01%0.25%1.52%1.71%0.64%0.49%0.15%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.391.500.90
Cash Retained (M)10.0310.0310.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.39-1.50-0.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.648.539.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.101,457.101,457.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Fair Value$0.10$0.14$0.18
Upside / Downside-98.10%-97.52%-96.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.9612.4712.9913.5414.1114.7115.15
Payout Ratio16.15%30.92%45.69%60.46%75.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.933.855.948.1910.6213.2414.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Year 1 PV (M)3.483.513.55
Year 2 PV (M)4.844.935.03
Year 3 PV (M)6.026.206.38
Year 4 PV (M)7.057.327.61
Year 5 PV (M)7.938.328.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)124.88131.05137.45
Equity Value (M)154.19161.33168.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.101,457.101,457.10
Fair Value$0.11$0.11$0.12
Upside / Downside-98.07%-97.98%-97.89%

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