Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kaishan Group Co., Ltd. (300257.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.14 - $81.16$76.06
Multi-Stage$12.20 - $13.34$12.76
Blended Fair Value$44.41
Current Price$15.43
Upside187.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.89%9.01%0.360.100.210.210.120.090.090.130.000.22
YoY Growth--257.89%-52.82%-0.64%75.79%40.55%0.00%-33.33%4,652.06%-98.74%43.44%
Dividend Yield--3.86%0.74%1.20%1.51%0.83%0.88%0.59%0.82%0.01%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)404.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.8550.5330.32
Cash Retained (M)60.2860.2860.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.85-50.53-30.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)-20.569.7529.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)990.54990.54990.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.14$76.06$81.16
Upside / Downside114.77%392.92%425.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)404.23430.51458.49488.29520.03553.83570.45
Payout Ratio85.09%86.07%87.05%88.03%89.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.95370.54399.13429.87462.92498.45527.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)344.53347.79351.06
Year 2 PV (M)345.06351.63358.27
Year 3 PV (M)345.55355.47365.58
Year 4 PV (M)346.00359.31372.99
Year 5 PV (M)346.41363.14380.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,360.8710,861.3111,380.90
Equity Value (M)12,088.4212,638.6513,209.30
Shares Outstanding (M)990.54990.54990.54
Fair Value$12.20$12.76$13.34
Upside / Downside-20.91%-17.31%-13.57%

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