Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Refond Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd. (300241.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.67 - $1.12$0.87
Multi-Stage$1.11 - $1.22$1.17
Blended Fair Value$1.02
Current Price$5.79
Upside-82.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.74%0.00%0.020.030.050.010.020.020.030.010.010.04
YoY Growth---20.11%-43.63%257.53%-13.48%-17.85%-41.60%132.04%31.12%-73.97%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.61%0.83%0.21%0.25%0.35%0.43%0.16%0.15%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.634.772.86
Cash Retained (M)15.4415.4415.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.63-4.77-2.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.8110.6712.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)687.26687.26687.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Fair Value$0.67$0.87$1.12
Upside / Downside-88.49%-85.06%-80.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.1638.7039.2439.7940.3540.9142.14
Payout Ratio59.54%65.63%71.73%77.82%83.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7225.4028.1530.9633.8636.8238.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Year 1 PV (M)23.4823.7223.95
Year 2 PV (M)24.0624.5425.03
Year 3 PV (M)24.4725.2125.96
Year 4 PV (M)24.7425.7426.77
Year 5 PV (M)24.8726.1427.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)642.86675.52709.49
Equity Value (M)764.48800.85838.64
Shares Outstanding (M)687.26687.26687.26
Fair Value$1.11$1.17$1.22
Upside / Downside-80.79%-79.87%-78.92%

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