Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Silver Age Sci & Tech Co.,Ltd. (300221.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.58 - $7.24$5.00
Multi-Stage$3.21 - $3.52$3.36
Blended Fair Value$4.18
Current Price$8.30
Upside-49.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.06%-10.46%0.010.000.010.020.020.050.200.160.080.06
YoY Growth--452.13%-65.19%-62.06%1.25%-55.79%-77.08%26.08%104.01%22.62%40.39%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.04%0.14%0.33%0.29%0.97%2.38%1.00%0.49%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4012.137.28
Cash Retained (M)91.1691.1691.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.40-12.13-7.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.7679.0383.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)470.19470.19470.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate3.99%4.99%5.99%
Fair Value$3.58$5.00$7.24
Upside / Downside-56.85%-39.79%-12.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.01101.85106.93112.26117.86123.74127.45
Payout Ratio6.03%22.82%39.62%56.41%73.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.8523.2542.3663.3386.28111.37117.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate3.99%4.99%5.99%
Year 1 PV (M)21.1721.3721.57
Year 2 PV (M)35.1235.8036.49
Year 3 PV (M)47.8149.2050.62
Year 4 PV (M)59.3161.6264.00
Year 5 PV (M)69.7073.1176.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,276.451,339.021,404.02
Equity Value (M)1,509.551,580.121,653.36
Shares Outstanding (M)470.19470.19470.19
Fair Value$3.21$3.36$3.52
Upside / Downside-61.32%-59.51%-57.63%

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