Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited (300083.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.80 - $2.65$2.21
Multi-Stage$2.78 - $3.05$2.91
Blended Fair Value$2.56
Current Price$10.32
Upside-75.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.24%0.71%0.030.020.030.050.040.050.040.030.020.03
YoY Growth--63.22%-33.57%-38.80%11.85%-21.49%23.12%35.83%100.59%-41.79%-5.64%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.27%0.32%0.40%0.31%1.19%1.14%0.42%0.17%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)383.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)343.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.7247.9528.77
Cash Retained (M)343.33343.33343.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.72-47.95-28.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)266.61295.38314.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,649.661,649.661,649.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate-1.29%-0.29%0.71%
Fair Value$1.80$2.21$2.65
Upside / Downside-82.54%-78.60%-74.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)383.59382.50381.40380.31379.23378.14389.49
Payout Ratio10.50%26.40%42.30%58.20%74.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.26100.97161.33221.34281.00340.33360.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate-1.29%-0.29%0.71%
Year 1 PV (M)91.7892.7193.64
Year 2 PV (M)133.31136.03138.77
Year 3 PV (M)166.27171.37176.58
Year 4 PV (M)191.89199.78207.92
Year 5 PV (M)211.26222.18233.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,788.843,984.674,188.52
Equity Value (M)4,583.354,806.755,038.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,649.661,649.661,649.66
Fair Value$2.78$2.91$3.05
Upside / Downside-73.08%-71.77%-70.40%

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