Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co., Ltd. (300049.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.13 - $20.02$13.11
Multi-Stage$6.71 - $7.33$7.02
Blended Fair Value$10.07
Current Price$74.40
Upside-86.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.80%-3.86%0.010.200.270.010.010.010.120.120.110.10
YoY Growth---95.88%-25.20%3,566.78%-48.15%26.52%-90.46%-3.77%16.51%5.39%706.67%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.41%0.95%0.05%0.18%0.15%1.04%0.92%0.55%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.6315.409.24
Cash Retained (M)83.2683.2683.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.63-15.40-9.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.6367.8674.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)263.29263.29263.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.13$13.11$20.02
Upside / Downside-87.73%-82.37%-73.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.17131.18139.70148.78158.45168.75173.82
Payout Ratio32.40%43.92%55.44%66.96%78.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.9157.6177.4599.63124.35151.88160.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51.9752.4652.95
Year 2 PV (M)63.0264.2265.43
Year 3 PV (M)73.1175.2177.35
Year 4 PV (M)82.3285.4888.74
Year 5 PV (M)90.6895.0699.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,406.761,474.701,545.25
Equity Value (M)1,767.851,847.131,929.33
Shares Outstanding (M)263.29263.29263.29
Fair Value$6.71$7.02$7.33
Upside / Downside-90.98%-90.57%-90.15%

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