Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Huitian New Materials Co., Ltd. (300041.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.56 - $54.73$51.29
Multi-Stage$8.27 - $9.04$8.65
Blended Fair Value$29.97
Current Price$12.16
Upside146.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.26%13.15%0.170.160.110.030.150.110.380.110.050.05
YoY Growth--6.73%39.63%307.27%-81.77%34.39%-70.00%254.07%100.00%-1.16%10.14%
Dividend Yield--1.78%1.69%1.00%0.27%1.51%1.31%6.37%1.27%0.62%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.9319.3311.60
Cash Retained (M)49.1249.1249.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.93-19.33-11.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.1929.7937.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)561.99561.99561.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.56$51.29$54.73
Upside / Downside93.76%321.83%350.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154.67164.72175.43186.83198.98211.91218.27
Payout Ratio68.24%72.59%76.95%81.30%85.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.55119.58134.99151.89170.42190.72201.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.24112.30113.35
Year 2 PV (M)116.82119.04121.29
Year 3 PV (M)122.28125.79129.37
Year 4 PV (M)127.63132.54137.59
Year 5 PV (M)132.88139.30145.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,035.314,230.214,432.58
Equity Value (M)4,646.164,859.185,080.14
Shares Outstanding (M)561.99561.99561.99
Fair Value$8.27$8.65$9.04
Upside / Downside-32.01%-28.89%-25.66%

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