Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Gaona Aero Material Co., Ltd. (300034.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.25 - $11.76$6.58
Multi-Stage$2.85 - $3.12$2.99
Blended Fair Value$4.78
Current Price$16.26
Upside-70.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.45%12.74%0.140.160.130.100.080.070.040.030.030.06
YoY Growth---8.97%20.40%31.86%22.38%11.02%90.90%16.62%1.49%-49.62%48.41%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.01%0.56%0.45%0.57%0.82%0.42%0.43%0.25%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6617.2910.37
Cash Retained (M)113.24113.24113.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.66-17.29-10.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.5895.95102.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)788.63788.63788.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.25$6.58$11.76
Upside / Downside-73.86%-59.51%-27.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.32147.31156.89167.09177.95189.51195.20
Payout Ratio18.13%32.50%46.88%61.25%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.0847.8873.55102.34134.58170.56180.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.5243.9444.35
Year 2 PV (M)60.7761.9263.09
Year 3 PV (M)76.8679.0781.31
Year 4 PV (M)91.8695.4099.03
Year 5 PV (M)105.83110.94116.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,872.611,963.062,056.97
Equity Value (M)2,251.462,354.332,461.01
Shares Outstanding (M)788.63788.63788.63
Fair Value$2.85$2.99$3.12
Upside / Downside-82.44%-81.64%-80.81%

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