Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuhan Zhongyuan Huadian Science & Technology Co.,Ltd. (300018.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.04 - $48.36$45.32
Multi-Stage$28.88 - $31.71$30.27
Blended Fair Value$37.79
Current Price$9.11
Upside314.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.12%0.050.050.000.000.000.000.100.050.050.00
YoY Growth--0.00%11,922.83%-77.03%-45.13%0.00%-100.00%104.01%-1.29%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.89%0.01%0.03%0.06%0.00%1.57%0.71%0.45%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.6115.389.23
Cash Retained (M)89.3889.3889.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.61-15.38-9.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.7774.0080.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)503.83503.83503.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate1.24%1.24%1.24%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Fair Value$41.04$45.32$48.36
Upside / Downside350.54%397.47%430.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.04130.47138.36146.73155.60165.01169.96
Payout Ratio27.36%39.89%52.41%64.94%77.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.6652.0472.5295.29120.55148.51157.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.24%1.24%1.24%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Year 1 PV (M)50.9251.4051.89
Year 2 PV (M)69.4370.7572.09
Year 3 PV (M)89.2591.8394.45
Year 4 PV (M)110.47114.74119.13
Year 5 PV (M)133.16139.62146.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,096.8314,780.7115,490.87
Equity Value (M)14,550.0715,249.0515,974.76
Shares Outstanding (M)503.83503.83503.83
Fair Value$28.88$30.27$31.71
Upside / Downside217.00%232.23%248.04%

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