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Definitive Analysis

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A.D.Works Group Co.,Ltd. (2982.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,339.01 - $9,451.64$8,857.57
Multi-Stage$1,400.98 - $1,534.88$1,466.69
Blended Fair Value$5,162.13
Current Price$293.00
Upside1,661.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.80%0.00%9.148.053.362.193.832.3913.441.601.591.59
YoY Growth--13.49%139.26%53.77%-42.81%60.32%-82.24%737.97%0.57%0.46%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.68%3.11%2.03%1.46%2.32%1.30%7.30%0.87%0.87%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,302.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)268.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,034.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)460.46287.79172.67
Cash Retained (M)2,034.322,034.322,034.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-460.46-287.79-172.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,573.861,746.531,861.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.4448.4448.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.4936.0538.43
LTM Dividend per Share5.535.535.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.4936.0538.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.0241.5843.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,339.01$8,857.57$9,451.64
Upside / Downside1,380.89%2,923.06%3,125.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,302.322,451.972,611.352,781.092,961.863,154.383,249.01
Payout Ratio11.64%27.31%42.98%58.66%74.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)268.00669.691,122.471,631.282,201.492,838.943,005.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)623.36629.26635.17
Year 2 PV (M)972.52991.041,009.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,315.571,353.331,391.81
Year 4 PV (M)1,652.581,716.141,781.51
Year 5 PV (M)1,983.652,079.462,178.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)61,321.2564,283.0967,358.29
Equity Value (M)67,868.9371,052.3374,355.46
Shares Outstanding (M)48.4448.4448.44
Fair Value$1,400.98$1,466.69$1,534.88
Upside / Downside378.15%400.58%423.85%

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