Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Union Bank of Taiwan (2838.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.54 - $247.82$217.25
Multi-Stage$31.44 - $34.40$32.90
Blended Fair Value$125.07
Current Price$17.95
Upside596.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.44%64.08%0.290.190.230.110.180.110.260.270.240.15
YoY Growth--51.02%-13.84%102.98%-37.54%60.09%-57.63%-3.37%12.50%63.53%7,010.49%
Dividend Yield--1.85%1.45%1.71%0.84%2.26%1.67%3.90%4.66%4.27%2.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,391.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,950.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,440.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,078.35673.97404.38
Cash Retained (M)3,440.913,440.913,440.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,078.35-673.97-404.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,362.562,766.943,036.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,326.874,326.874,326.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.640.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.640.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.54$217.25$247.82
Upside / Downside281.82%1,110.30%1,280.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,391.735,742.206,115.446,512.946,936.287,387.147,608.76
Payout Ratio36.18%46.95%57.71%68.47%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,950.832,695.703,529.164,459.595,496.066,648.437,038.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,494.882,518.532,542.18
Year 2 PV (M)3,022.943,080.523,138.64
Year 3 PV (M)3,535.353,636.833,740.24
Year 4 PV (M)4,032.444,187.514,347.02
Year 5 PV (M)4,514.554,732.604,959.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,456.77124,178.28130,118.76
Equity Value (M)136,056.93142,334.28148,845.85
Shares Outstanding (M)4,326.874,326.874,326.87
Fair Value$31.44$32.90$34.40
Upside / Downside75.18%83.26%91.65%

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