Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Seria Co., Ltd. (2782.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,666.92 - $4,338.56$3,415.67
Multi-Stage$2,593.35 - $2,837.33$2,713.09
Blended Fair Value$3,064.38
Current Price$3,105.00
Upside-1.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.77%21.39%73.0473.0473.0473.6263.1157.8552.5821.0315.7713.13
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-0.79%16.66%9.09%10.02%150.07%33.33%20.06%24.93%
Dividend Yield--2.72%2.53%3.18%3.05%1.54%1.51%2.08%0.40%0.29%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,870.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,316.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,553.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,374.002,108.751,265.25
Cash Retained (M)15,553.5015,553.5015,553.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,374.00-2,108.75-1,265.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,179.5013,444.7514,288.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.1072.1072.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share168.93186.48198.18
LTM Dividend per Share18.2618.2618.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share168.93186.48198.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend187.19204.74216.44
WACC / Discount Rate10.68%10.68%10.68%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$2,666.92$3,415.67$4,338.56
Upside / Downside-14.11%10.01%39.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,870.0017,616.3018,395.6219,209.4120,059.2020,946.5921,574.99
Payout Ratio7.80%24.24%40.68%57.12%73.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,316.504,270.737,483.7610,972.7114,755.7018,851.9319,956.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.68%10.68%10.68%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)3,821.563,858.513,895.47
Year 2 PV (M)5,992.376,108.816,226.37
Year 3 PV (M)7,861.988,092.258,326.96
Year 4 PV (M)9,460.589,831.8210,213.87
Year 5 PV (M)10,815.6611,348.7511,902.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)149,021.77156,366.86163,998.76
Equity Value (M)186,973.93195,607.00204,564.09
Shares Outstanding (M)72.1072.1072.10
Fair Value$2,593.35$2,713.09$2,837.33
Upside / Downside-16.48%-12.62%-8.62%

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