Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jp-Holdings,Inc. (2749.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,339.22 - $5,564.59$2,304.01
Multi-Stage$816.16 - $893.05$853.90
Blended Fair Value$1,578.96
Current Price$559.00
Upside182.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.06%8.56%7.945.944.563.963.963.773.572.555.113.91
YoY Growth--33.63%30.21%15.34%-0.18%5.09%5.56%39.93%-49.98%30.69%11.87%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.10%1.33%1.57%1.47%1.37%1.19%0.72%1.70%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,784.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)338.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,445.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)756.89473.05283.83
Cash Retained (M)3,445.743,445.743,445.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-756.89-473.05-283.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,688.862,972.693,161.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.4485.4485.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.4734.7937.01
LTM Dividend per Share3.963.963.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.4734.7937.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend35.4438.7640.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,339.22$2,304.01$5,564.59
Upside / Downside139.57%312.17%895.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,784.434,030.424,292.404,571.404,868.545,185.005,340.55
Payout Ratio8.95%25.16%41.37%57.58%73.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)338.691,014.041,775.752,632.203,592.494,666.504,940.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)927.60936.40945.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,485.931,514.231,542.80
Year 3 PV (M)2,014.862,072.702,131.63
Year 4 PV (M)2,515.532,612.272,711.77
Year 5 PV (M)2,989.053,133.423,283.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,798.1862,686.4665,685.27
Equity Value (M)69,731.1572,955.4876,299.99
Shares Outstanding (M)85.4485.4485.44
Fair Value$816.16$853.90$893.05
Upside / Downside46.00%52.76%59.76%

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