Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Hotel Company Ltd. (2706.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.15 - $7.91$6.44
Multi-Stage$12.58 - $13.84$13.20
Blended Fair Value$9.82
Current Price$13.35
Upside-26.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.86%14.23%0.350.320.130.140.430.430.250.170.140.13
YoY Growth--8.07%140.63%-6.63%-66.51%1.00%69.34%50.73%16.91%10.54%39.58%
Dividend Yield--2.45%2.16%0.92%1.02%3.08%3.53%1.76%1.13%0.91%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)287.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)174.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.5135.9521.57
Cash Retained (M)112.66112.66112.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.51-35.95-21.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.1476.7191.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)504.63504.63504.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-2.36%-1.36%-0.36%
Fair Value$5.15$6.44$7.91
Upside / Downside-61.39%-51.75%-40.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)287.57283.65279.79275.98272.22268.52276.57
Payout Ratio60.83%66.66%72.50%78.33%84.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)174.92189.09202.84216.18229.12241.66255.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-2.36%-1.36%-0.36%
Year 1 PV (M)176.12177.92179.73
Year 2 PV (M)175.97179.59183.25
Year 3 PV (M)174.68180.10185.64
Year 4 PV (M)172.44179.62187.01
Year 5 PV (M)169.41178.27187.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,477.205,763.496,061.62
Equity Value (M)6,345.826,658.996,984.74
Shares Outstanding (M)504.63504.63504.63
Fair Value$12.58$13.20$13.84
Upside / Downside-5.80%-1.15%3.68%

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