Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Air Asia Co., Ltd. (2630.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.96 - $200.96$120.97
Multi-Stage$24.46 - $26.72$25.57
Blended Fair Value$73.27
Current Price$54.70
Upside33.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.57%15.42%0.530.280.180.090.050.570.720.790.000.50
YoY Growth--90.27%54.99%91.30%104.75%-92.00%-21.37%-8.60%0.00%-100.00%300.01%
Dividend Yield--1.47%0.73%1.02%0.59%0.32%5.72%4.16%3.37%0.00%1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.6526.6615.99
Cash Retained (M)83.2983.2983.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.65-26.66-15.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.6456.6367.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.05211.05211.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.270.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.270.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.96$120.97$200.96
Upside / Downside-12.33%121.16%267.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.26227.12241.89257.61274.35292.19300.95
Payout Ratio60.94%66.75%72.57%78.38%84.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.97151.62175.53201.91230.97262.97278.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)140.00141.33142.66
Year 2 PV (M)149.67152.52155.40
Year 3 PV (M)158.97163.54168.19
Year 4 PV (M)167.93174.39181.03
Year 5 PV (M)176.54185.07193.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,368.294,579.284,798.34
Equity Value (M)5,161.405,396.125,639.54
Shares Outstanding (M)211.05211.05211.05
Fair Value$24.46$25.57$26.72
Upside / Downside-55.29%-53.26%-51.15%

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