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Definitive Analysis

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Nanshan Aluminium Intrnatnl Holdings Ltd (2610.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.87 - $13.73$11.12
Multi-Stage$20.63 - $22.68$21.63
Blended Fair Value$16.38
Current Price$4.01
Upside308.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)376.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.8767.4240.45
Cash Retained (M)162.96162.96162.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.87-67.42-40.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.0995.54122.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)566.38566.38566.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.87$11.12$13.73
Upside / Downside121.19%177.34%242.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.33533.94528.60523.31518.08512.90528.28
Payout Ratio69.79%73.83%77.87%81.91%85.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)376.37394.20411.62428.67445.32461.61488.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)366.68370.42374.17
Year 2 PV (M)356.17363.48370.86
Year 3 PV (M)345.03355.70366.59
Year 4 PV (M)333.42347.24361.49
Year 5 PV (M)321.49338.23355.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,959.8210,478.4511,018.47
Equity Value (M)11,682.6212,253.5312,847.23
Shares Outstanding (M)566.38566.38566.38
Fair Value$20.63$21.63$22.68
Upside / Downside414.39%439.52%465.67%

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