Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gurunavi, Inc. (2440.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.12 - $3.94$3.56
Multi-Stage$5.86 - $6.49$6.17
Blended Fair Value$4.86
Current Price$221.00
Upside-97.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-19.90%-20.16%1.912.700.830.003.315.7922.2836.2936.1427.32
YoY Growth---29.41%225.80%21,541.47%-99.88%-42.79%-74.01%-38.61%0.41%32.28%50.70%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.88%0.24%0.00%0.61%0.78%3.31%4.00%1.98%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4211.516.91
Cash Retained (M)38.0838.0838.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.42-11.51-6.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.6626.5731.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.5756.5756.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.470.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.950.950.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.470.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.421.51
WACC / Discount Rate10.73%10.73%10.73%
Growth Rate-21.90%-20.90%-19.90%
Fair Value$3.12$3.56$3.94
Upside / Downside-98.59%-98.39%-98.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.0872.8457.6145.5736.0528.5229.37
Payout Ratio58.64%64.92%71.19%77.46%83.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.0047.2841.0135.3030.1825.6627.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.73%10.73%10.73%
Growth Rate-21.90%-20.90%-19.90%
Year 1 PV (M)42.1642.7043.24
Year 2 PV (M)32.6133.4534.30
Year 3 PV (M)25.0326.0027.00
Year 4 PV (M)19.0820.0821.11
Year 5 PV (M)14.4715.4216.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)198.15211.16224.85
Equity Value (M)331.49348.81366.92
Shares Outstanding (M)56.5756.5756.57
Fair Value$5.86$6.17$6.49
Upside / Downside-97.35%-97.21%-97.07%

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