Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Crystal International Group Limited (2232.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.01 - $26.16$24.51
Multi-Stage$12.76 - $14.04$13.39
Blended Fair Value$18.95
Current Price$0.59
Upside3,085.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.73%17.34%0.030.020.020.020.010.020.020.020.120.03
YoY Growth--59.91%13.37%-0.72%28.42%-6.25%-23.59%-8.42%-81.52%348.75%293.69%
Dividend Yield--6.10%5.78%6.08%5.67%4.83%3.84%4.09%2.34%12.00%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)388.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.7248.5829.15
Cash Retained (M)229.60229.60229.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.72-48.58-29.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.88181.02200.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,852.822,852.822,852.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Fair Value$10.01$24.51$26.16
Upside / Downside1,583.98%4,020.50%4,298.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)388.60399.48410.67422.17434.00446.15459.54
Payout Ratio40.92%50.73%60.55%70.37%80.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159.00202.67248.66297.07347.99401.54425.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Year 1 PV (M)195.03196.94198.86
Year 2 PV (M)230.26234.80239.39
Year 3 PV (M)264.71272.59280.62
Year 4 PV (M)298.39310.29322.54
Year 5 PV (M)331.32347.91365.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,073.7036,830.5538,657.09
Equity Value (M)36,393.4138,193.0840,063.68
Shares Outstanding (M)2,852.822,852.822,852.82
Fair Value$12.76$13.39$14.04
Upside / Downside2,045.04%2,151.11%2,261.37%

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