Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fulu Holdings Limited (2101.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.24 - $0.34$0.29
Multi-Stage$0.36 - $0.40$0.38
Blended Fair Value$0.34
Current Price$1.39
Upside-75.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-68.38%0.00%0.000.110.150.260.040.040.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.87%-29.66%-42.45%605.91%-15.38%58.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%5.00%3.25%4.85%0.48%0.52%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.801.751.05
Cash Retained (M)13.9213.9213.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.80-1.75-1.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.1312.1812.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.96407.96407.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.28%9.28%9.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.24$0.29$0.34
Upside / Downside-82.86%-79.22%-75.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.9813.8413.7013.5613.4313.2913.69
Payout Ratio0.40%18.32%36.24%54.16%72.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.062.544.977.359.6811.9712.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.28%9.28%9.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.302.322.34
Year 2 PV (M)4.074.164.24
Year 3 PV (M)5.465.635.80
Year 4 PV (M)6.526.797.07
Year 5 PV (M)7.307.688.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)123.12129.53136.21
Equity Value (M)148.77156.11163.74
Shares Outstanding (M)407.96407.96407.96
Fair Value$0.36$0.38$0.40
Upside / Downside-73.76%-72.47%-71.13%

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