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Definitive Analysis

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China Leon Inspection Holding Limited (1586.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.03 - $51.50$48.26
Multi-Stage$7.63 - $8.35$7.98
Blended Fair Value$28.12
Current Price$2.51
Upside1,020.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.09%0.00%0.020.040.030.040.020.010.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth---63.04%50.36%-27.21%64.53%360.31%-70.00%-16.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%2.88%2.40%2.92%3.43%0.62%1.76%2.20%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)155.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.0519.4011.64
Cash Retained (M)121.73121.73121.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.05-19.40-11.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.68102.32110.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)599.44599.44599.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.03$48.26$51.50
Upside / Downside817.53%1,822.81%1,951.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)155.23165.32176.06187.51199.70212.68219.06
Payout Ratio21.58%35.27%48.95%62.63%76.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.5058.3086.18117.44152.40191.41202.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.2554.7755.28
Year 2 PV (M)74.6376.0677.49
Year 3 PV (M)94.6597.36100.13
Year 4 PV (M)114.30118.69123.21
Year 5 PV (M)133.59140.04146.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,100.234,298.274,503.90
Equity Value (M)4,571.654,785.195,006.75
Shares Outstanding (M)599.44599.44599.44
Fair Value$7.63$7.98$8.35
Upside / Downside203.85%218.04%232.76%

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