Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TECO Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. (1504.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$207.02 - $507.01$475.15
Multi-Stage$76.38 - $83.45$79.85
Blended Fair Value$277.50
Current Price$95.10
Upside191.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.00%8.51%2.361.521.371.170.910.840.820.840.761.04
YoY Growth--55.39%11.11%17.39%28.19%8.35%2.82%-2.27%10.00%-27.27%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.82%2.70%3.22%3.63%2.81%3.48%3.85%3.38%2.46%3.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,380.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,729.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)650.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,076.07672.54403.53
Cash Retained (M)650.67650.67650.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,076.07-672.54-403.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-425.39-21.87247.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,110.422,110.422,110.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.010.12
LTM Dividend per Share2.242.242.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.010.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.232.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$207.02$475.15$507.01
Upside / Downside117.69%399.63%433.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,380.345,730.066,102.516,499.186,921.627,371.537,592.67
Payout Ratio87.91%88.33%88.74%89.16%89.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,729.665,061.085,415.615,794.836,200.486,634.387,023.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,705.834,750.444,795.04
Year 2 PV (M)4,682.014,771.194,861.21
Year 3 PV (M)4,658.214,791.934,928.19
Year 4 PV (M)4,634.434,812.664,995.97
Year 5 PV (M)4,610.674,833.365,064.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)137,903.26144,564.04151,479.74
Equity Value (M)161,194.40168,523.61176,124.73
Shares Outstanding (M)2,110.422,110.422,110.42
Fair Value$76.38$79.85$83.45
Upside / Downside-19.68%-16.03%-12.25%

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