Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongmiao (1471.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.83 - $4.16$3.47
Multi-Stage$5.09 - $5.60$5.34
Blended Fair Value$4.40
Current Price$13.83
Upside-68.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.036.273.76
Cash Retained (M)31.1531.1531.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.03-6.27-3.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1224.8827.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.76137.76137.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.83$3.47$4.16
Upside / Downside-79.55%-74.92%-69.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.1349.6349.1348.6448.1647.6849.11
Payout Ratio37.87%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.9823.9728.8533.6438.3242.9145.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.9522.1822.40
Year 2 PV (M)24.2024.7025.20
Year 3 PV (M)25.8426.6327.45
Year 4 PV (M)26.9628.0729.22
Year 5 PV (M)27.6429.0830.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)574.99604.93636.10
Equity Value (M)701.57735.59770.96
Shares Outstanding (M)137.76137.76137.76
Fair Value$5.09$5.34$5.60
Upside / Downside-63.18%-61.39%-59.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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