Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ascent Development Co Ltd (1439.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.19 - $16.48$14.38
Multi-Stage$119.31 - $133.42$126.21
Blended Fair Value$70.29
Current Price$29.25
Upside140.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-4.98%0.300.300.201.565.010.000.000.500.500.50
YoY Growth--0.00%50.00%-87.14%-68.90%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.08%0.89%6.53%19.68%0.00%0.00%1.81%2.43%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.3232.0819.25
Cash Retained (M)229.01229.01229.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.32-32.08-19.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.69196.94209.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.8391.8391.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.932.142.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.932.142.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.242.452.58
WACC / Discount Rate3.28%3.28%3.28%
Growth Rate-12.72%-11.72%-10.72%
Fair Value$12.19$14.38$16.48
Upside / Downside-58.33%-50.83%-43.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.61226.53199.98176.54155.85137.58141.70
Payout Ratio10.76%26.60%42.45%58.30%74.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.6060.2784.90102.93115.56123.82131.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.28%3.28%3.28%
Growth Rate-12.72%-11.72%-10.72%
Year 1 PV (M)57.6958.3559.01
Year 2 PV (M)77.7979.5881.40
Year 3 PV (M)90.2893.4296.63
Year 4 PV (M)97.02101.55106.23
Year 5 PV (M)99.51105.34111.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,534.3211,151.8011,797.91
Equity Value (M)10,956.6211,590.0512,252.61
Shares Outstanding (M)91.8391.8391.83
Fair Value$119.31$126.21$133.42
Upside / Downside307.89%331.48%356.14%

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