Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company Limited (1381.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.19 - $13.21$10.45
Multi-Stage$15.68 - $17.26$16.45
Blended Fair Value$13.45
Current Price$4.59
Upside193.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.57%0.00%0.030.100.120.100.080.060.040.030.010.00
YoY Growth---66.67%-20.00%21.21%26.92%31.79%50.78%34.48%218.20%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%2.48%2.86%2.41%2.36%1.65%0.96%0.64%0.24%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,867.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)234.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,633.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)373.48233.43140.06
Cash Retained (M)1,633.211,633.211,633.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-373.48-233.43-140.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,259.731,399.781,493.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,429.442,429.442,429.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Fair Value$8.19$10.45$13.21
Upside / Downside78.42%127.68%187.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,867.401,871.431,875.461,879.501,883.551,887.611,944.24
Payout Ratio12.54%28.03%43.52%59.02%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)234.20524.62816.291,109.221,403.401,698.851,798.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)486.93491.84496.74
Year 2 PV (M)703.21717.46731.85
Year 3 PV (M)886.91914.00941.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,041.521,084.151,128.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,170.211,230.381,293.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,798.4435,536.4037,345.14
Equity Value (M)38,087.2339,974.2441,936.46
Shares Outstanding (M)2,429.442,429.442,429.44
Fair Value$15.68$16.45$17.26
Upside / Downside241.55%258.48%276.07%

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