Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guming (1364.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.07 - $15.40$12.56
Multi-Stage$21.59 - $23.77$22.66
Blended Fair Value$17.61
Current Price$23.31
Upside-24.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,364.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)888.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,475.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)472.88295.55177.33
Cash Retained (M)1,475.681,475.681,475.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-472.88-295.55-177.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,002.811,180.141,298.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,107.042,107.042,107.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.981.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.07$12.56$15.40
Upside / Downside-56.82%-46.12%-33.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,364.392,340.752,317.342,294.172,271.232,248.512,315.97
Payout Ratio37.59%48.07%58.55%69.03%79.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)888.711,125.191,356.861,583.781,806.022,023.662,142.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,043.491,054.141,064.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,166.981,190.911,215.09
Year 3 PV (M)1,263.241,302.301,342.17
Year 4 PV (M)1,335.911,391.281,448.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,388.221,460.511,535.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,294.1941,340.3343,470.83
Equity Value (M)45,492.0347,739.4850,077.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2,107.042,107.042,107.04
Fair Value$21.59$22.66$23.77
Upside / Downside-7.38%-2.80%1.96%

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