Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sino Hotels (Holdings) Limited (1221.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.55 - $0.72$0.64
Multi-Stage$0.96 - $1.07$1.01
Blended Fair Value$0.83
Current Price$1.36
Upside-39.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-12.54%-7.25%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-35.76%30.96%12.39%-1.23%-1.46%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.07%0.05%0.06%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)167.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.5320.9612.57
Cash Retained (M)166.49166.49166.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.53-20.96-12.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.96145.53153.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,153.571,153.571,153.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-9.25%-8.25%-7.25%
Fair Value$0.55$0.64$0.72
Upside / Downside-59.62%-52.90%-46.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)167.66153.82141.12129.47118.79108.98112.25
Payout Ratio0.69%18.56%36.42%54.28%72.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.1628.5451.3970.2785.6998.08103.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-9.25%-8.25%-7.25%
Year 1 PV (M)25.6725.9626.24
Year 2 PV (M)41.5842.5043.44
Year 3 PV (M)51.1552.8654.60
Year 4 PV (M)56.1058.6261.21
Year 5 PV (M)57.7661.0264.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)878.69928.19979.89
Equity Value (M)1,110.961,169.141,229.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,153.571,153.571,153.57
Fair Value$0.96$1.01$1.07
Upside / Downside-29.19%-25.48%-21.61%

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