Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Carel Industries S.p.A. (0YQA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.66 - $116.24$108.94
Multi-Stage$75.44 - $82.79$79.04
Blended Fair Value$93.99
Current Price$22.85
Upside311.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.43%0.00%0.190.160.130.110.110.090.270.130.180.04
YoY Growth--18.75%20.03%25.08%0.07%19.90%-66.69%100.00%-25.00%300.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.14%0.79%0.55%0.47%0.58%0.76%2.66%1.66%2.21%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.058.164.89
Cash Retained (M)46.6546.6546.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.05-8.16-4.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.5938.4941.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)111.65111.65111.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate-0.10%-0.10%-0.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.66$108.94$116.24
Upside / Downside331.79%376.74%408.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.2669.5074.0278.8383.9689.4192.10
Payout Ratio28.52%40.82%53.11%65.41%77.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.6228.3739.3251.5665.2480.4785.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.10%-0.10%-0.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)28.1328.4028.66
Year 2 PV (M)38.6539.3940.13
Year 3 PV (M)50.2751.7153.18
Year 4 PV (M)63.0665.4967.98
Year 5 PV (M)77.1380.8684.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,165.358,559.748,969.23
Equity Value (M)8,422.608,825.599,243.92
Shares Outstanding (M)111.65111.65111.65
Fair Value$75.44$79.04$82.79
Upside / Downside230.13%245.93%262.33%

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