Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $443.73 - $1,177.09 | $678.51 |
| Multi-Stage | $301.12 - $329.14 | $314.87 |
| Blended Fair Value | $496.69 | |
| Current Price | $630.28 | |
| Upside | -21.20% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.80% | 7.55% | 3.10 | 2.86 | 2.63 | 2.43 | 2.30 | 2.13 | 1.91 | 1.79 | 1.72 | 1.76 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 8.62% | 8.75% | 8.25% | 5.35% | 8.09% | 11.51% | 6.89% | 3.68% | -2.26% | 17.70% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.65% | 0.47% | 0.74% | 0.63% | 0.69% | 1.13% | 0.94% | 0.86% | 0.79% | 1.11% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,152.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 195.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 957.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 230.40 | 144.00 | 86.40 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 957.00 | 957.00 | 957.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -230.40 | -144.00 | -86.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 726.60 | 813.00 | 870.60 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 60.90 | 60.90 | 60.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 11.93 | 13.35 | 14.30 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 11.93 | 13.35 | 14.30 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 15.13 | 16.55 | 17.50 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $443.73 | $678.51 | $1,177.09 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.60% | 7.65% | 86.76% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,152.00 | 1,226.88 | 1,306.63 | 1,391.56 | 1,482.01 | 1,578.34 | 1,625.69 |
| Payout Ratio | 16.93% | 31.54% | 46.16% | 60.77% | 75.39% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 195.00 | 386.98 | 603.09 | 845.66 | 1,117.22 | 1,420.51 | 1,503.76 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 351.38 | 354.71 | 358.04 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 497.23 | 506.70 | 516.26 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 633.07 | 651.25 | 669.77 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 759.42 | 788.63 | 818.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 876.75 | 919.09 | 963.06 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 15,220.27 | 15,955.42 | 16,718.70 |
| Equity Value (M) | 18,338.11 | 19,175.79 | 20,044.48 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 60.90 | 60.90 | 60.90 |
| Fair Value | $301.12 | $314.87 | $329.14 |
| Upside / Downside | -52.22% | -50.04% | -47.78% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMBC | Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. | 1.61% | $0.94 | 17.19% |
| VIRC | Virco Mfg. Corporation | 1.61% | $0.10 | 41.34% |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.67 | 22.53% |
| IVT | InvenTrust Properties Corp. | 1.60% | $0.45 | 29.49% |
| KBR | KBR, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.65 | 21.84% |
| OBK | Origin Bancorp, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.60 | 31.45% |
| TNC | Tennant Company | 1.60% | $1.18 | 39.96% |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. | 1.59% | $2.03 | 27.33% |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp, Inc. | 1.59% | $0.08 | 35.84% |
| 0HPW.L | Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 1.58% | $3.49 | 44.54% |
| CCF | Chase Corporation | 1.58% | $2.01 | 57.26% |
| MSIF | MSC Income Fund, Inc. | 1.58% | $0.21 | 12.72% |
| PRI | Primerica, Inc. | 1.58% | $4.10 | 18.44% |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 1.57% | $2.82 | 44.28% |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | 1.57% | $4.79 | 51.11% |
| MRO | Marathon Oil Corporation | 1.57% | $0.45 | 19.02% |
| NEU | NewMarket Corporation | 1.57% | $10.82 | 22.69% |
| PSMT | PriceSmart, Inc. | 1.57% | $1.93 | 39.29% |
| TFSL | TFS Financial Corporation | 1.57% | $0.21 | 65.45% |
| UFPI | UFP Industries, Inc. | 1.57% | $1.44 | 25.79% |
| 0M3Q.L | Zoetis Inc. | 1.56% | $1.95 | 32.55% |
| 0K92.L | Northrop Grumman Corporation | 1.55% | $8.80 | 31.43% |
| 0QZ5.L | Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | 1.55% | $1.25 | 28.62% |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | 1.55% | $2.11 | 51.98% |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | 1.55% | $1.32 | 13.96% |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | 1.55% | $2.65 | 40.30% |
| 0HQW.L | C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 1.54% | $2.48 | 50.26% |
| 0J76.L | Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | 1.54% | $5.36 | 37.08% |
| BHE | Benchmark Electronics, Inc. | 1.54% | $0.68 | 65.62% |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza, Inc. | 1.54% | $6.54 | 37.90% |
| GRC | The Gorman-Rupp Company | 1.54% | $0.74 | 38.69% |
| DFS | Discover Financial Services | 1.53% | $3.06 | 16.08% |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial, Inc. | 1.53% | $0.59 | 16.67% |
| JMSB | John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. | 1.52% | $0.30 | 29.07% |
| 0J3H.L | The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | 1.51% | $2.06 | 16.53% |
| TRV | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | 1.51% | $4.29 | 16.63% |
| CISMX | Clarkston Partners Fund Institutional Class | 1.50% | $0.19 | 32.74% |
| FCAP | First Capital, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.88 | 28.53% |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.26 | 22.66% |
| OBT | Orange County Bancorp, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.43 | 15.62% |
| OSK | Oshkosh Corporation | 1.50% | $1.99 | 19.24% |
| SAIC | Science Applications International Corporation | 1.50% | $1.51 | 19.14% |
| FUL | H.B. Fuller Company | 1.49% | $0.90 | 43.28% |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp, Inc. | 1.48% | $0.41 | 14.04% |
| FRBA | First Bank | 1.48% | $0.24 | 14.40% |
| ANDE | The Andersons, Inc. | 1.47% | $0.78 | 36.39% |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp, Inc. | 1.47% | $0.40 | 25.40% |
| WM | Waste Management, Inc. | 1.47% | $3.22 | 50.78% |
| ATR | AptarGroup, Inc. | 1.45% | $1.78 | 28.44% |
| CHX | ChampionX Corporation | 1.45% | $0.37 | 24.70% |