Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Asia Cement (China) Holdings Corporation (0743.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.49 - $0.63$0.56
Multi-Stage$1.68 - $1.87$1.77
Blended Fair Value$1.17
Current Price$2.12
Upside-44.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-41.91%-12.11%0.040.160.450.510.500.620.160.030.050.15
YoY Growth---74.37%-64.44%-11.94%2.20%-19.35%300.00%416.66%-40.00%-66.67%0.68%
Dividend Yield--1.77%8.70%15.25%12.56%7.45%8.60%2.31%1.09%2.45%11.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)255.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)191.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.1231.9519.17
Cash Retained (M)191.35191.35191.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.12-31.95-19.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)140.23159.40172.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,566.851,566.851,566.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-16.13%-15.13%-14.13%
Fair Value$0.49$0.56$0.63
Upside / Downside-77.00%-73.36%-70.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)255.59216.91184.08156.22132.58112.52115.89
Payout Ratio25.13%38.11%51.08%64.05%77.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.2482.6694.03100.07102.12101.27107.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-16.13%-15.13%-14.13%
Year 1 PV (M)76.8377.7578.66
Year 2 PV (M)81.2483.1985.16
Year 3 PV (M)80.3683.2786.25
Year 4 PV (M)76.2379.9383.77
Year 5 PV (M)70.2674.5579.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,243.052,380.012,523.57
Equity Value (M)2,627.982,778.702,936.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,566.851,566.851,566.85
Fair Value$1.68$1.77$1.87
Upside / Downside-20.89%-16.35%-11.60%

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