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Definitive Analysis

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Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited (0503.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.39 - $0.56$0.47
Multi-Stage$0.60 - $0.66$0.63
Blended Fair Value$0.55
Current Price$0.20
Upside168.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.180.000.000.010.030.010.020.020.02
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%-100.00%-46.12%-71.59%126.21%-17.80%-26.16%-11.06%13.25%
Dividend Yield--0.00%118.37%0.00%4.30%7.24%16.35%6.07%5.86%6.15%6.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.682.921.75
Cash Retained (M)22.4622.4622.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.68-2.92-1.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7819.5320.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.54419.54419.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.39$0.47$0.56
Upside / Downside89.98%130.36%172.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.3823.1522.9222.6922.4622.2422.90
Payout Ratio3.97%21.17%38.38%55.59%72.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.934.908.8012.6116.3520.0121.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.444.494.53
Year 2 PV (M)7.227.377.52
Year 3 PV (M)9.389.679.96
Year 4 PV (M)11.0111.4711.94
Year 5 PV (M)12.2112.8513.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)206.23216.97228.15
Equity Value (M)250.49262.81275.61
Shares Outstanding (M)419.54419.54419.54
Fair Value$0.60$0.63$0.66
Upside / Downside192.52%206.91%221.86%

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