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Definitive Analysis

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Tsim Sha Tsui Properties Limited (0247.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.67 - $43.86$34.31
Multi-Stage$27.75 - $30.42$29.06
Blended Fair Value$31.69
Current Price$19.18
Upside65.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.83%4.78%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16.67%-14.29%-13.73%44.02%-2.87%-6.03%-9.92%59.30%7.85%-9.12%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,839.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,826.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)967.80604.88362.93
Cash Retained (M)4,826.004,826.004,826.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-967.80-604.88-362.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,858.204,221.134,463.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.332,114.332,114.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.822.002.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.822.002.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.832.002.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Fair Value$26.67$34.31$43.86
Upside / Downside39.03%78.89%128.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,839.005,021.905,211.715,408.695,613.125,825.286,000.04
Payout Ratio0.27%18.21%36.16%54.11%72.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.00914.731,884.622,926.514,044.465,242.755,550.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)824.79832.81840.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,532.211,562.171,592.42
Year 3 PV (M)2,145.322,208.552,273.01
Year 4 PV (M)2,673.322,778.892,887.55
Year 5 PV (M)3,124.623,279.613,440.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,382.3850,782.3353,276.58
Equity Value (M)58,682.6461,444.3664,311.09
Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.332,114.332,114.33
Fair Value$27.75$29.06$30.42
Upside / Downside44.71%51.52%58.59%

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