Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Truelove Vogue Co., Ltd. (003041.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.50 - $51.23$36.36
Multi-Stage$132.88 - $146.84$139.72
Blended Fair Value$88.04
Current Price$23.93
Upside267.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720142013
DPS126.13%8.29%0.520.330.150.000.000.010.030.020.170.21
YoY Growth--57.20%120.74%1,011,277.58%-98.18%-90.76%-71.44%31.57%-85.89%-20.41%-11.09%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.53%0.92%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)249.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)180.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.0031.2518.75
Cash Retained (M)180.14180.14180.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.00-31.25-18.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.15148.89161.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.01144.01144.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.901.031.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.901.031.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.61
WACC / Discount Rate3.04%3.04%3.04%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Fair Value$26.50$36.36$51.23
Upside / Downside10.73%51.95%114.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)249.98247.26244.57241.91239.28236.68243.78
Payout Ratio27.94%40.35%52.76%65.17%77.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.8499.77129.04157.66185.65213.01225.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.04%3.04%3.04%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Year 1 PV (M)95.8496.8297.80
Year 2 PV (M)119.08121.53124.00
Year 3 PV (M)139.77144.10148.51
Year 4 PV (M)158.11164.67171.43
Year 5 PV (M)174.27183.35192.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,448.2019,409.7120,410.91
Equity Value (M)19,135.2720,120.1821,145.46
Shares Outstanding (M)144.01144.01144.01
Fair Value$132.88$139.72$146.84
Upside / Downside455.27%483.86%513.61%

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