Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Rayhoo Motor Dies Co.,Ltd. (002997.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$367.37 - $432.82$405.62
Multi-Stage$307.45 - $337.48$322.18
Blended Fair Value$363.90
Current Price$39.44
Upside822.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.05%0.61%0.370.300.180.190.210.220.120.210.010.09
YoY Growth--20.64%67.68%-2.70%-9.96%-4.72%87.72%-43.84%2,810.07%-92.22%-73.63%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.97%0.69%0.97%1.26%1.21%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)452.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)383.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.5456.5933.95
Cash Retained (M)383.14383.14383.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.54-56.59-33.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)292.61326.56349.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)208.01208.01208.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.411.571.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.411.571.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.741.902.01
WACC / Discount Rate-1.94%-1.94%-1.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$367.37$405.62$432.82
Upside / Downside831.46%928.44%997.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)452.69482.12513.46546.83582.38620.23638.84
Payout Ratio15.36%30.29%45.22%60.15%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.55146.04232.18328.89437.20558.21590.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.94%-1.94%-1.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)147.53148.93150.33
Year 2 PV (M)236.96241.47246.03
Year 3 PV (M)339.11348.85358.77
Year 4 PV (M)455.41472.93490.94
Year 5 PV (M)587.42615.79645.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,184.7165,188.2568,306.75
Equity Value (M)63,951.1567,016.2370,198.07
Shares Outstanding (M)208.01208.01208.01
Fair Value$307.45$322.18$337.48
Upside / Downside679.53%716.90%755.68%

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