Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northking Information Technology Co., Ltd. (002987.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.34 - $75.60$28.63
Multi-Stage$8.18 - $8.94$8.55
Blended Fair Value$18.59
Current Price$21.03
Upside-11.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS40.61%0.00%0.090.040.030.040.000.020.010.010.040.00
YoY Growth--118.78%15.86%-14.36%3,448.39%-92.86%57.27%-19.67%-67.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.49%0.28%0.39%0.01%0.26%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.9041.1924.71
Cash Retained (M)173.38173.38173.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.90-41.19-24.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.48132.19148.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)866.85866.85866.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.34$28.63$75.60
Upside / Downside-31.81%36.13%259.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.52350.94373.75398.05423.92451.48465.02
Payout Ratio47.38%55.91%64.43%72.95%81.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.14196.20240.81290.39345.40406.33430.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)180.40182.11183.82
Year 2 PV (M)203.59207.46211.38
Year 3 PV (M)225.73232.21238.81
Year 4 PV (M)246.87256.36266.13
Year 5 PV (M)267.03279.93293.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,966.966,255.176,554.41
Equity Value (M)7,090.587,413.257,747.87
Shares Outstanding (M)866.85866.85866.85
Fair Value$8.18$8.55$8.94
Upside / Downside-61.10%-59.33%-57.50%

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