Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. (002946.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.46 - $155.44$145.67
Multi-Stage$24.35 - $26.66$25.48
Blended Fair Value$85.58
Current Price$17.07
Upside401.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.32%14.51%0.250.240.070.190.160.060.090.100.470.12
YoY Growth--7.36%221.81%-60.31%13.79%180.24%-35.16%-10.50%-78.73%285.93%86.10%
Dividend Yield--1.73%2.24%0.45%1.57%0.99%0.46%0.48%1.28%6.02%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)686.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)288.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)398.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)137.3685.8551.51
Cash Retained (M)398.54398.54398.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-137.36-85.85-51.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)261.18312.69347.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)878.74878.74878.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.46$145.67$155.44
Upside / Downside377.19%753.37%810.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)686.82731.47779.01829.65883.57941.01969.24
Payout Ratio41.97%51.58%61.18%70.79%80.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)288.28377.28476.63587.30710.35846.91896.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)351.55354.89358.22
Year 2 PV (M)413.85421.73429.69
Year 3 PV (M)475.17488.81502.71
Year 4 PV (M)535.53556.13577.31
Year 5 PV (M)594.95623.69653.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,028.7619,947.8520,902.13
Equity Value (M)21,399.8122,393.1023,423.58
Shares Outstanding (M)878.74878.74878.74
Fair Value$24.35$25.48$26.66
Upside / Downside42.67%49.29%56.16%

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