Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang AngLiKang Pharmaceutical CO.,LTD. (002940.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.00 - $14.93$10.83
Multi-Stage$20.98 - $23.11$22.03
Blended Fair Value$16.43
Current Price$38.02
Upside-56.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.74%-2.42%0.300.210.170.240.450.340.010.230.150.11
YoY Growth--40.81%22.19%-27.41%-47.75%33.35%3,406.00%-95.74%55.50%34.61%-71.23%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.28%0.75%1.29%2.53%1.69%0.05%1.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6213.518.11
Cash Retained (M)67.8767.8767.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.62-13.51-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2654.3659.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate5.05%5.05%5.05%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Fair Value$8.00$10.83$14.93
Upside / Downside-78.97%-71.52%-60.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.09108.76109.44110.12110.80111.49114.83
Payout Ratio37.21%47.77%58.32%68.88%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2251.9563.8375.8588.02100.34106.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.05%5.05%5.05%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Year 1 PV (M)48.9649.4549.94
Year 2 PV (M)56.6957.8458.99
Year 3 PV (M)63.5065.4367.40
Year 4 PV (M)69.4472.2775.19
Year 5 PV (M)74.6078.4382.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,848.604,045.684,250.75
Equity Value (M)4,161.794,369.094,584.67
Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
Fair Value$20.98$22.03$23.11
Upside / Downside-44.82%-42.07%-39.21%

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