Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Express Airlines Co.,LTD (002928.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.01 - $31.12$17.16
Multi-Stage$10.19 - $11.17$10.67
Blended Fair Value$13.91
Current Price$10.02
Upside38.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.72%26.88%0.160.160.130.150.130.120.100.040.010.04
YoY Growth---0.30%20.91%-11.01%12.70%9.25%23.40%128.43%255.29%-68.49%159.43%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.68%1.13%1.44%0.82%1.40%1.00%0.25%0.09%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)581.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)155.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)425.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.2472.6543.59
Cash Retained (M)425.25425.25425.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.24-72.65-43.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)309.00352.60381.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,277.411,277.411,277.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Fair Value$11.01$17.16$31.12
Upside / Downside9.85%71.23%210.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)581.22608.68637.43667.54699.07732.09754.05
Payout Ratio26.84%39.47%52.10%64.73%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)155.98240.24332.11432.13540.85658.88697.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)222.06224.20226.34
Year 2 PV (M)283.75289.25294.80
Year 3 PV (M)341.26351.23361.39
Year 4 PV (M)394.81410.25426.15
Year 5 PV (M)444.57466.42489.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,330.8011,887.6412,466.15
Equity Value (M)13,017.2413,628.9814,263.94
Shares Outstanding (M)1,277.411,277.411,277.41
Fair Value$10.19$10.67$11.17
Upside / Downside1.70%6.48%11.44%

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