Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shennan Circuit Company Limited (002916.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$777.43 - $915.94$858.37
Multi-Stage$605.35 - $664.37$634.31
Blended Fair Value$746.34
Current Price$216.64
Upside244.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.33%18.17%0.921.000.960.920.770.470.350.330.220.22
YoY Growth---7.83%4.30%4.31%19.39%63.13%34.55%5.82%49.80%1.50%25.53%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.35%1.35%1.32%1.14%0.43%0.58%0.92%1.74%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,715.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)829.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,885.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.07339.42203.65
Cash Retained (M)1,885.861,885.861,885.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.07-339.42-203.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,342.791,546.441,682.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)589.57589.57589.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.282.622.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.411.411.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.282.622.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.684.034.26
WACC / Discount Rate-0.46%-0.46%-0.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$777.43$858.37$915.94
Upside / Downside258.86%296.22%322.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,715.342,891.833,079.803,279.993,493.193,720.253,831.85
Payout Ratio30.55%42.44%54.33%66.22%78.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)829.481,227.251,673.222,171.982,728.513,348.223,544.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.46%-0.46%-0.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,221.291,232.871,244.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,657.031,688.591,720.45
Year 3 PV (M)2,140.532,201.982,264.59
Year 4 PV (M)2,675.972,778.882,884.73
Year 5 PV (M)3,267.813,425.653,589.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)345,934.07362,642.81379,991.04
Equity Value (M)356,896.70373,970.77391,694.78
Shares Outstanding (M)589.57589.57589.57
Fair Value$605.35$634.31$664.37
Upside / Downside179.43%192.79%206.67%

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