Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation (002905.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.56 - $0.78$0.67
Multi-Stage$2.97 - $3.30$3.13
Blended Fair Value$1.90
Current Price$10.60
Upside-82.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.00%-5.45%0.040.040.040.040.050.210.290.190.040.11
YoY Growth---0.21%-0.59%-14.22%-17.23%-74.39%-26.30%51.73%359.39%-63.27%67.67%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.44%0.43%0.61%0.60%2.11%2.11%1.15%0.32%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.324.572.74
Cash Retained (M)26.9826.9826.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.32-4.57-2.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.6622.4024.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)378.25378.25378.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate4.74%4.74%4.74%
Growth Rate-8.07%-7.07%-6.07%
Fair Value$0.56$0.67$0.78
Upside / Downside-94.76%-93.71%-92.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.5934.0031.6029.3727.2925.3626.12
Payout Ratio26.27%39.01%51.76%64.51%77.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.6113.2716.3618.9421.0822.8324.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.74%4.74%4.74%
Growth Rate-8.07%-7.07%-6.07%
Year 1 PV (M)12.5312.6712.80
Year 2 PV (M)14.5914.9115.23
Year 3 PV (M)15.9616.4917.03
Year 4 PV (M)16.7817.5218.29
Year 5 PV (M)17.1618.1119.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,045.731,103.861,164.54
Equity Value (M)1,122.751,183.551,246.99
Shares Outstanding (M)378.25378.25378.25
Fair Value$2.97$3.13$3.30
Upside / Downside-72.00%-70.48%-68.90%

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