Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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YanKer shop Food Co.,Ltd (002847.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.06 - $314.22$137.28
Multi-Stage$49.65 - $54.34$51.95
Blended Fair Value$94.61
Current Price$70.10
Upside34.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS80.29%29.78%1.730.780.540.560.280.090.130.110.110.00
YoY Growth--121.30%46.17%-3.55%97.83%208.64%-30.89%20.84%-2.50%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.74%1.44%0.84%1.93%0.45%0.34%0.97%0.85%0.50%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)751.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)735.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.3093.9456.36
Cash Retained (M)735.32735.32735.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.30-93.94-56.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)585.02641.38678.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.33272.33272.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.152.362.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.152.362.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.212.412.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.06$137.28$314.22
Upside / Downside15.63%95.83%348.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)751.52800.37852.40907.80966.811,029.651,060.54
Payout Ratio2.16%19.72%37.29%54.86%72.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.20157.87317.89498.04700.27926.69981.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)144.31145.67147.04
Year 2 PV (M)265.60270.66275.77
Year 3 PV (M)380.37391.29402.42
Year 4 PV (M)488.86507.67527.00
Year 5 PV (M)591.34619.90649.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,650.1512,212.8612,797.10
Equity Value (M)13,520.6414,148.0514,798.89
Shares Outstanding (M)272.33272.33272.33
Fair Value$49.65$51.95$54.34
Upside / Downside-29.18%-25.89%-22.48%

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