Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

UTour Group Co., Ltd. (002707.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.26 - $0.35$0.30
Multi-Stage$0.62 - $0.68$0.65
Blended Fair Value$0.48
Current Price$7.36
Upside-93.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.28%8.39%0.030.030.040.050.060.070.080.050.060.02
YoY Growth---21.11%-18.51%-14.48%-13.88%-23.04%-9.21%49.11%-4.28%141.45%96.36%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.49%0.44%0.65%0.88%1.58%0.98%0.43%0.37%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.896.183.71
Cash Retained (M)35.3935.3935.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.89-6.18-3.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.5029.2131.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)991.97991.97991.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-7.08%-6.08%-5.08%
Fair Value$0.26$0.30$0.35
Upside / Downside-96.53%-95.88%-95.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.4446.4343.6140.9638.4736.1437.22
Payout Ratio28.41%40.73%53.05%65.37%77.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0518.9123.1426.7829.8932.5234.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-7.08%-6.08%-5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)17.4217.6017.79
Year 2 PV (M)19.6220.0420.47
Year 3 PV (M)20.9121.5922.28
Year 4 PV (M)21.4922.4323.40
Year 5 PV (M)21.5322.7123.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)512.90541.10570.52
Equity Value (M)613.85645.47678.41
Shares Outstanding (M)991.97991.97991.97
Fair Value$0.62$0.65$0.68
Upside / Downside-91.59%-91.16%-90.71%

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