Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.,Ltd. (002697.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.31 - $75.82$71.06
Multi-Stage$12.30 - $13.46$12.87
Blended Fair Value$41.96
Current Price$5.56
Upside654.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.53%14.80%0.130.450.010.160.090.050.020.020.000.04
YoY Growth---71.95%3,057.14%-91.14%81.61%64.15%152.38%10.53%2,461.06%-98.09%24.53%
Dividend Yield--2.37%9.05%0.23%3.29%1.47%0.55%0.37%0.34%0.01%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)513.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)357.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.7664.2338.54
Cash Retained (M)357.41357.41357.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.76-64.23-38.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)254.65293.18318.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,347.681,347.681,347.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.31$71.06$75.82
Upside / Downside750.88%1,177.99%1,263.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)513.81547.21582.78620.66661.00703.96725.08
Payout Ratio30.44%42.35%54.26%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.40231.75316.23410.72516.16633.57670.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)216.21218.26220.31
Year 2 PV (M)275.25280.49285.79
Year 3 PV (M)333.52343.10352.85
Year 4 PV (M)391.04406.08421.55
Year 5 PV (M)447.81469.44491.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,906.5415,626.5316,374.08
Equity Value (M)16,570.3817,343.9018,146.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,347.681,347.681,347.68
Fair Value$12.30$12.87$13.46
Upside / Downside121.14%131.46%142.18%

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