Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yuan Cheng Cable Co.,Ltd. (002692.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.69 - $3.62$2.41
Multi-Stage$7.54 - $8.32$7.92
Blended Fair Value$5.16
Current Price$5.30
Upside-2.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.25%-7.60%0.050.060.040.040.080.070.090.100.140.11
YoY Growth---8.96%36.45%-1.32%-41.09%0.27%-13.00%-13.72%-28.32%21.62%-4.23%
Dividend Yield--0.91%1.48%1.16%1.20%2.63%2.04%1.78%1.10%1.36%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.648.535.12
Cash Retained (M)44.8144.8144.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.64-8.53-5.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.1636.2839.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)718.63718.63718.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate3.16%3.16%3.16%
Growth Rate-1.28%-0.28%0.72%
Fair Value$1.69$2.41$3.62
Upside / Downside-68.17%-54.62%-31.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.2268.0367.8467.6467.4567.2669.28
Payout Ratio34.32%45.46%56.59%67.73%78.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.4230.9238.3945.8253.2060.5464.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.16%3.16%3.16%
Growth Rate-1.28%-0.28%0.72%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6829.9830.28
Year 2 PV (M)35.3536.0736.80
Year 3 PV (M)40.4941.7343.00
Year 4 PV (M)45.1146.9748.88
Year 5 PV (M)49.2751.8154.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,215.325,484.885,765.47
Equity Value (M)5,415.225,691.445,978.90
Shares Outstanding (M)718.63718.63718.63
Fair Value$7.54$7.92$8.32
Upside / Downside42.18%49.43%56.98%

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