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Definitive Analysis

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Guosheng Securities Inc (002670.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.43 - $4.46$3.27
Multi-Stage$3.93 - $4.31$4.12
Blended Fair Value$3.69
Current Price$24.34
Upside-84.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.90%9.08%0.090.080.100.130.170.190.190.110.000.05
YoY Growth--15.77%-26.20%-20.93%-20.07%-12.39%-1.74%74.85%2,324.47%-91.48%42.08%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.82%1.20%1.46%1.62%1.95%1.29%0.84%0.03%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)326.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)190.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.2740.7924.48
Cash Retained (M)190.75190.75190.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.27-40.79-24.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.48149.96166.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,934.451,934.451,934.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Fair Value$2.43$3.27$4.46
Upside / Downside-90.01%-86.57%-81.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)326.35332.79339.36346.05352.89359.85370.65
Payout Ratio41.55%51.24%60.93%70.62%80.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135.60170.52206.77244.38283.40323.87342.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Year 1 PV (M)158.42159.99161.56
Year 2 PV (M)178.48182.03185.62
Year 3 PV (M)195.98201.86207.86
Year 4 PV (M)211.15219.64228.38
Year 5 PV (M)224.18235.50247.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,629.706,964.567,312.81
Equity Value (M)7,597.917,963.588,343.50
Shares Outstanding (M)1,934.451,934.451,934.45
Fair Value$3.93$4.12$4.31
Upside / Downside-83.86%-83.09%-82.28%

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