Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing WKW Automotive Parts Co.,Ltd. (002662.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.50 - $2.33$1.89
Multi-Stage$3.34 - $3.68$3.50
Blended Fair Value$2.69
Current Price$3.92
Upside-31.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.52%0.11%0.110.080.020.030.110.070.140.300.200.16
YoY Growth--37.65%400.65%-44.38%-73.49%48.11%-47.70%-53.09%46.83%27.23%46.57%
Dividend Yield--2.87%2.32%0.44%0.83%3.41%2.78%2.74%5.02%2.23%2.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.1029.4417.66
Cash Retained (M)118.54118.54118.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.10-29.44-17.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.4489.11100.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,458.731,458.731,458.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Fair Value$1.50$1.89$2.33
Upside / Downside-61.64%-51.91%-40.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.50233.41231.33229.27227.23225.21231.97
Payout Ratio49.66%57.73%65.80%73.87%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116.96134.75152.21169.35186.18202.69214.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Year 1 PV (M)125.20126.48127.75
Year 2 PV (M)131.41134.10136.82
Year 3 PV (M)135.85140.05144.33
Year 4 PV (M)138.77144.52150.44
Year 5 PV (M)140.38147.68155.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,200.714,419.204,646.68
Equity Value (M)4,872.325,112.025,361.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,458.731,458.731,458.73
Fair Value$3.34$3.50$3.68
Upside / Downside-14.79%-10.60%-6.24%

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